Benazir Bhutto's assassination: loss to Pakistani democracy?

Benazir Bhutto was assassinated today while on the streets. A gunman shot her, then blew up himself while she was standing on top of her car.

Zulfikar Ali Bhutto

Benazir's father was Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who was founder of the PPP (Pakistan's People Party), Prime Minister, then President of Pakistan. A military coup ousted him from power, and put him on trial and executed. Partially out of emotional sympathy, his wife, Nusrat Bhutto was made head of the PPP.

Benazir Bhutto as Prime Minister

Later, in 1988, his daughter, Benazir was elected as Prime Minister. She was dismissed from that office on charges of corruption, and chose to live in exile, at times in Dubai, UAE.

Return to Pakistan

In 2007, she returned to Pakistan to run in the upcoming elections against Pervez Musharraf. Musharraf was already eliminating those who oppose him, specially in the judiciary who disqualified his presidency.

Her return must have been with the approval of Musharraf, part of a possible political deal Nawwaz Sharif, another ex-Prime Minister, and the archnemesis of Musharraf, also returned to Pakistan prior to the elections.

An attempt on Benazir's life occurred hours after her return to Pakistan.

She was put under house arrest for a while by orders of Musharraf during the emergency martial law he imposed at one point.

Benazir's rhetoric since her return was about democracy, presenting herself as the candidate for the disaffected, against corruption and entrenched elite, and all the nice promises that go with that.

Assassination

Benazir Bhutto was assassinated today while on the streets. A gunman
shot her, then blew up himself while she was standing on top of her car.

World Reaction on Assassination

The reaction from world leaders, for example Bush, and the Pakistanis at home and
abroad is amazing in that it is emotional yet devoid of reality. People are crying publicly for her.

Feminist
Pakistani groups (e.g. Raheel Raza) mourned her death as a loss for
women.

Many see this as a loss to Pakistani democracy.

Some are comparing her assassination to that of Archduke Ferdinand in the Balkans precipitating World War I.

Others are emphatic that Al-Qaeda is to blame because "they hate democracy".

Military dictatorship and corruption

The sad part is that Pakistan has not had proper democracy since its
independence, and military dictators have run it for the most part for
60 years. When they are not in power,rule by the landed elite, combined
with rampant corruption has both taken its toll on the country's
people, its economy and stability.

Assessment

Yet, none of the above mourners, real or feigned, have looked closely at the issue at hand. Sad as it is for someone to die that way, there are many other facets to Benazir's return to Pakistan.

One fact is Benazir Bhutto belongs to the ruling elite in Pakistan. She has lived a life of privilge and power.

Another fact is that her return to Pakistan a few months ago must have been with the approval of Musharraf. Perhaps he made a calculated risk to allow her to run opposite him. More likely, there was a secret deal between them for a power sharing agreement.

Another aspect is that her election in 1988 was in part out of sympathy for her father, with people emotionally siding with a civilian president that has been deposed, tried and executed by a military coup.

Yet another is corruption charges against her during her term of office, resulting in her being dismissed from office.

One has to also take into account that Musharraf has came to power by a military coup deposing a civilian Prime Minister, Nawwaz Sharif. Musharraf has been legitimized and supported by the USA ever since his support for its invasion of Afghanistan deposing the Taliban following the September 11 attacks. He has since presented himself to the West as a champion against terrorism. I think that down the road he may end up the same way that Manuel Noriega, Saddam Hussein and Osama Bin Laden ended: from being a tool to foreign powers to someone who has outlasted their usefulness.

Benzair has also played the terrorism card well, presenting herself as a moderate.

The extremists may have assassinated Benazir, but they hate Musharraf the most, being the incumbent, and having attempted several times to kill him. But at the end of the day, Musharraf is the one who stands to benefit the most from the elimination of someone who has some degree of popularity.

This is not to say that Musharraf directly ordered her assassination, he may well have done so, but it is impossible to prove even if it is so. More likely, by having lax security around her he may have made it easier for whoever targeted her. In all cases, the result is that a popular political opponent of Musharraf has been eliminated from the race. Or Musharraf can use her assassination to reinstate the state of emergency and martial law again.

So, let us put the matter in its right size: this is a sad case of a political assassination for a candidate a third world country under military dictatorship and political turmoil. That candidate is not a savior for democracy or women causes, nor a martyr for it. She was part of "the system", posing as a reformer of that system.

The killing, savage and deplorable as it is, will not plunge the world in World War III, will not embolden the terrorists, and will is not that large a blow to democray in Pakistan.

Will Pakistan see free democratic elections in January as planned? That remains to be seen.

Also see Benazir Bhutto Assassination in Wikipedia for a collection of links.